泛亚电竞

“威”观察| 这波玉米“超涨”行情你看明白了没?

2020niandongbeidiquxinyumishangshihou,xingqinghenkuaijinruzhangjiatongdao。shichangpubianrenwei,zhangjiashihelide,danshi“chaozhang”shibulixingde。weirao“chaozhang”yuanyin,geluzhutiyuyanyouzhi,maotouqueyoumingquezhixiang。zheixieguandianfanyingdeshizenyangdeshichangqingxu?ruhekandaidangqianyumishichangzoushi?zaidangqianxingshixiayouyinggaixingchengzenyangdegongshi?zheiduiyuchanyelianshixian“liubaoliuwen”damubiaojiweizhongyao。11yue17dao20ri,fanyadianjingzaijilin、liaoning、guangdongdejigouhegangkouqunxunleyifan,qianqiandichujidaoleyumichanyedemaidong。ganwudao,dabianjuxia,“neixiejingkongyufenluan,qishiyouzheshenmidezhixu。”

一、多种因素,让玉米步入涨价通道

泛亚电竞youjigoufanying,9yuefen,bansuizhehuabeiyumikaiqishangshi,diejiazhengceliangdetoufangxiaoying,guoneiyumijiageshangzhangdeshitoudeyiezhi,baokuodongbeichanqu、huabeichanquyijinanbeigangkouyumijiagefenfenhuiluo,xiayouqiyeyouqishichuyuzhangqikuisundejiagongqiyeyezai9yuefenchuxianniukuiweiyingdezoushi。ranerguoqingjiehou,suizhexinjiyumishangliangguimokuoda,yixiedaxingyangqiguoqizaibeifanggangkou、dongbeichanqulvxiantijiashougou,beifanggangkoushougoujiacongjieqiande2330yuan/dunxunsushangzhangzhi2530yuan/dun;suihouguangdonggangkouxiaoshoujiageyecongjieqiande2450yuan/dunshangzhangzhi2650yuan/dun。zheiyiluncaozuorangshehuizibenkandaole“danzhifeng”,daliangzibenkuaisujiarudunliangxinglie,jiyushouliangdanbujiyumailiang,duhoushizhangjia。

jigoufenxi,zai9yue3rilinchupaimaizhihou,shangyouchaoguo3000wandundepaimailiangchuyuweichukuzhuangtai,jiashangshichangxianhuokucunniandujiezhuankucunjin4000wandun。anzhaomuqianshichangduiyuxinjiyumichanliang2.6yidundeyugu,xinniandudeguoneiyumizonggongyingliangrenggaoda3yidun。ruguojisuanshangjinkouheqitaxinnianduxiaomaiyijidaogudetidai,xinnianduyumizongtigongyinghaishichongzude。

danshi“yiqing、zaiqingheyuqing”gongzhen,hongtuoqishichangshangdezhangjia“qingxu”。zaihaijianchan,xuqiuzengjia,linchuchuqing,shuangyiqingguankongchangtaihuadengdeng,meigeticaidoukeyijichuchongzudezhangjialiyou。gengyouguojiguoneidezhengzhixingshi,shichangbianhua,baogongbaowenrenwudengdeng,doucushishehuizibenxunzhaoxindetouzijihui。jilinmouguoyounongyeshengchanfanyadianjingxingqiyefuzerenzshuo,“zhongguokendingbuqueliang,danjinnianyumiyouquekou。”jinnianyumizhangjiashiyinggaide,“chaozhang”yeshikeyilijiede。dansheiyemeixiangdao,shiwuliubaliangshijiagehongqilaile。qianqiyouyuxinguanyiqingqijianmeiyouzhuangxiegongyinfawuliuzhangjia。wuliuzhangjiazaijiashangguowailianghuang,jiuyouzibenkaishichaozuo。youyumaoyishangtaiduo,menjianyoudi,zhiyaoyouqianjiuyouliang,“qiang”detaishijiuchuxianle,jiageyiluzhangleqilai。

泛亚电竞jinnianzuidatedianshidunliangdexiaosanhutaiduole。hongganta、xiaomaoyishangyigexiangzhenyoushigebagehenzhengchang,yijiadunyiwandunjiushishiwandun。yigexiangzhenyejiuchanshiduowandunliang,zijijiubaliangshizhengwanle。xianzaijicengdeqiwangzhihengaole。jiagebuzhanghainengmai,yuezhangyuebumai。tamendezijinzhuyaoshitaijielaide,lixishi8lizuoyou,zhishaodezhengchuzheigeqianlaicaihuichushou。muqianzheigejiagejibenshangbukenengxialaile。yishiyumiquannianbugouyong,ershigaojiashouliangpeileburen。liangjiagaodianyezhengchang。jinnianqiushouchengbenjibenmeishangdizengjia2000yuanzuoyou。jinnianliangshizhangdianjia,ranglaobaixingkandaodianxiwang,bushihuaishi。

泛亚电竞ciboxingqingbingfeirenweicaozuo,ershi“shichanghuashougou”dejieguo。julejie,nianchuzhijin,fanyadianjingguonongchanpinjiagexiangjishangzhang,youqiyumiheguochandadoujiagezhangshimingxian,yumi、guochandadouxianhuojiagefenbieshangzhang34.6%he32.6%;tongqi,yumiqihuojiage(zhuliheyue)shangzhang32.8%。gongxujinpinghengrongyichanshengjieduanxing、lianxuxingjiageshangzhang,6yuexiaxunyilai,huabeiyumijiagechaoguo2500yuan/dun,daidongxiaomai、shuidaojiageshangzhang。guoneizhuyaonongchanpinqihuojiaoyilianghechicangliangjunxianzhutisheng。10yuefen,yumirijunchengjiaoliang、rijunchicangliangfenbiewei123wanshouhe217wanshou,jiaonianchufenbiezengzhang245%he84%,jiaoquniantongqifenbiezengjia152%he94%,danyu2017nian2yue116wanshouhe239wanshouderijunchengjiaoliang、chicangliangdazhixiangdang。congqihuoshichangzhibiaolaikan,qihuochengjiaochicangbibaochizaihelizhengchangshuiping,kanbuchushichangguoreheguodutoujixingwei。shuidao、xiaomaiheyumichengjiaochicangbibudao0.6,yuandiyu1.52deshichangpingjunshuiping。dashangsuoyehuigenjushichangxuqiusuishizengjiajiaogekurong,baozhengjiaogeanquan。zaizheilunzhangjiazhong,qihuojiageqidaoleshichangfengxiangbiaodezuoyong。

er、tuopanshougou,rangchanquzouchu“chaozhang”xingqing

fanyadianjingcaifangdeshichangzhutipubianrenwei,jinnianyumizhangjiashihelide,dan“chaozhang”shibulixingde。neimechaozhangyoushizenmexingchengdeni?

泛亚电竞daodishenmejiao“chaozhang”ni?fanyadianjingcaifangdemaoyishangyusiliaochangshangpubianrenweidangqianyumijiagechaozhangle200yuan/dun。juguangdongmoudasiliaojituancaigoufuzerendfenxi,yumijiagetongbizhangle700yuan/dun,erhelidezhangfuyingzai500—600yuan/dun,chaozhangle100-200yuan/dun。yumiyishangshi,dongbeishougoujiashi2350yuan/dun,biquniande1800yuan/dunganghaozhangle550yuan/dun。xifenzhangjiajiegou: yi、yinzaijianchanyue10%,anquniandejiagezhejiushi180yuan/dun;er、shuifen30gaochuyue7.5%,anpaimailiangbiaozhunwei150yuan/dun;san、rengongzhangjiajiashangdaofuliangzengjialerengongshouliangmianji,yishangdijishou1000yuan,rengongshoujiude2500yuan,zhehejiushi150yuan/dun。si、jinnianwuliuhuanjiezhangjiafanbei,congjilingongzhulingyundaoliaoningbayuquangangjiuzhangle50yuan/dun。sixiangxiangjiajiushi530yuan/dun。

泛亚电竞“muqianchaozhangdejiageshijishangshishichangliuzhudongbeiliangshideshichangxingwei。”dshuo。yinweidongbeisanshengyiqushenjiagongdexuqiuzhishaoshi3000dao3500wandunyumi。xianzaiqiyeshianzhao10dao12geyuedebeihuoqilaibeihuode。yinweilinchuliangyijingpaimaiwanle,dangdidedixiaoxuqiuyezengshanglaile,lingwaidongbeidiquyouyunongmindalifazhandashengchusiyang,yue1/3deyumiyaoliuxialaiziyong。shenjiagonghesiliaoxuqiuliangzheheji,zhishaoyou5000wandundexuqiu。erdongbeisanshengyiququnianchanliangshichangrenweizai8000wandun。congliudongxingkandangqianxingqing,liangnianqianheilongjianggedideyumidounengyundaobayuquangang,danjinniankanbudaotamenle。

guanjianshizheizhong“diaokong”shiyongde“shouduan”beishichangzhutirenweishi“chaozhang”dezhutuiqi,yeshiyinfadangxiabutongshichangzhutijianjudamaodundezhengjie。jufanying,jinniandongbeiyumishougouliuxingdeshi“disanfangzijintuopan”moshi。zheizhongmoshibeizhiweibianxiangde“rongzixingmaoyi”。guoziweizai2018nianfawen,yanjinweifanguidingkaizhanrongzixingmaoyiyewuhuo“kongzhuan”“zoudan”dengxujiamaoyiyewu。jinnianlianghuiqijian,shirenguoziweizhurenxiaoyaqingzhongshenyanjinrongzixingmaoyi。kejianzheigewentizaiyangqizhongqueshishicunzaide。liyongcangkuziyuanhezijinyoushiweizhongxiaoqiye“zuolinchu”,shouquniderucangbaozhengjinhe50yuan/dundedaishoufei,jinideliyishitigong90%deyinxingdaikuan。muqianshichangdunhuodezijin70%—80%laiziyuci。“zheishiyumixianhuonenggoudunqilaidehexinyuanyin。”

泛亚电竞nidonglefanyadianjingdenailao。“shichanghuashougou”bunengpohuaigongpingjingzhengyuanze。jilinmouminyingliangshimaoyiqiyefuzerenfjieshao,tamenjinnianyumideshougouliangzhiyouquniande1/5。fanyadianjingcaifangdesanjiananfangsiliaoqiye,quandouyinweizijinjicangrongdengyuanyinzhinengjiaruzheigemoshizhong。frenwei,nikurongduokeyizuoshoufeifanyadianjing,danshibunengtigongzijin,bunengbianxianglongduan。er“gaoxizhuandai”gengshipohuaileshichangzhixu。yumizhang,dianfenjiuzhang,ranhoujiujingjiuzhang。yumijiageweilaiweichisanwuniandegaoweishizhengchangde,danshichaozhangdailaidejiangshizhengfudiaokongshiling,diaokongchengbengenggao。

dongbeichuxianlequanmindunliangguaixianxiang。xianzaiyoudianziyuandedouzaishouliang,zhao“tuopanzijin”。suoyoudeshoulianghudouhuizhaoyangqijieqiangaodaishou,bujiujiaobaozhengjin10%ma?tou10%qiaohui90%zijin,liangjiazhiyaozhang10%,touzihuibaolvjiushi100%。youdianrenmaidequanlaishouliangle,rujinyiranxingchengle“dunliangjiegou”: youdianzijinyoudianguanxidejiuzaichandishouliang,guanxiyingdiandezaichanqudewuliujiediancunliang,guanxihenyingdezaigangkoudunliang,erbeijing、zijin、shilidoufeichangyingdejiuzaizuiqianyangangkoudunle,meiguanxidehaixiangdundianliangdedouzainongcundun。

san、jiagedaogua,rangnanyundebeilianghennannanxia

nanbeidaoguadejiageyizhileyijingcaigoudedongbeiyuminanxia。fanyadianjingzailiaoningyingkoubayuquangangmoumaoyigongsilejiedao,xianzaigangkouyumikucun350wandun,tongbizengjiale100wandun。youyuchandijiagegaoyuxiaodizhinengtingzhizaikuli。liangguangyidaixiaoshoujiagezai2600-2610yuan/dun,haiyunfeizai140yuan/dun,dongbeiyumidaobayuquanyinggaizai2450-2460yuan/dun,xianzaigangkoujiageyijingtupo2500yuan/dun。jiashangyunfei,nanfangjiebuqile。gongsijinnianxiaoshoudaonanfangdeyumizhiyou50dun,wangniandouzaiersanshiwandun。yijingyigeyuemeifahuole,yinweiyundaonanfanggangkouyaopei20yuan/dunzuoyou。xianzaigangkoudekudoumanle,yeyunbujinqule。

泛亚电竞nanfanggangkoufanyingdeqingkuangyinzhenglebeiliangnanyundekunjing。fanyadianjingcaifangleguangdongdongguanshenchiwangangwuyouxiangongsiheguangzhougangjituannanshaliangshitongyongmatoufengongsi。tamendoushi2010niankaigang,zhuyaozuoneimaodebeiliangnanyunyewu。shenchiwangangwjinglijieshao,zheijinianchuxiandexintedianshidaxingsanzhuangchuangaiweijizhuangxiang,xiaopilianghuoyungengshiheqiyesuiyongsuimaidexuyao。lingwaijiushizhongliangjinkouliangshizengjia,shuliangpinzhongshuangzeng。jinnianzhenggezhusanjiaodao11yuemobeiliangnanyunjiehuoliangyue500duowandun,biqunianshaole200wandun。erquannianjinkouyujizengjia20%zuoyou。congjinnian8yuefenkaishijiuyoudianyagang,xianzaicangchunengliwei75wandun,zhengzaifanyadianjingde40wanduncangrongniandijiangtouchan。

“mande,doushimande,meiyounagegangkouxianzaibuman,lianzhanjiangdoumanle。”nanshagangwzongjinglijieshao,fanyadianjingjinnianjiehuoliangzai600wandun,qizhong500wandunwaimaoliang,100wandunneimaoliang,jibendoushisiliao。jinnianbeiliangnanxiajianshao50%buzhi,keguanshangshaojinbeifangyumizuishaoersanbaiwandun。xianzaikehudingcangweiyijingpaidaomingnian6yuefen,doushiyangqipeieneiliangshi。muqiankucundayueneimao15wandun,waimao45wandun,eryiwangkucunzonggong40wanzuoyou。muqiandekucunliangyinggainengbaozhengzhoubianqiyeshengchandaomingnian6yuefen。fanyadianjingniandiyeyou40duowandexinzengkurongtourushiyong。

nanfangsiliaoqiyejinruyandong。djieshao,zhenggehuananxian,guangdong、guangxi、fujianjibenshangyongdedoushijinkouguwu。yumi、gaoliang、damai、xiaomai、wandou,haiyouguochanpaimaidexiaomai、shuidao。djiamuqianzaiguangzhougangkouderitihuoliangyue4wandun,qizhongjinkouyuezhan70%。wangnianzaidongbeicaigouyumi200wandun,jinnianzhibaole30wandun。kanxiaomai,kanjinkou,kanjiacha。ruguoxiaomaiheshijiuyongxiaomaile。jiduanqingkuangshenzhiwanquanbuyongyumiyeshikeyide。

泛亚电竞guangximoudayangzhuqiyecaigoufuzerenwjieshao,fanyadianjingzhinengyongjinkou,kaokucunhuanchong,ruguochandiyouxingqingdeshihoujiumaiyiba。qitazhongxiaoqiyezhinengshisuiyongsuimai。daochunjieqianfanyadianjingbumaiyumiyegouyongle,danshihaidemai,yinweichunjiehoumeiyourenmaiyuanqijinkoule。youyujinkoudaohuobujizhong,zaochenglejinkouhaishiyoukongdang,suoyixianzaizaichandiyaopinmingdunliang,buguanshenmejiayeyaodun。xianzaizhujiaxialaileyebuyingxiangyumijixuzhang。eryumizhangjiahou,yangzhihumaisiliaofanerbimaiyuanliaozijipeigenghesuan,zheiyangyilai,siliaoxuqiuliangjiushanglaile。yumizhangjiayalidengyucongyangzhihuzhuanyidaosiliaochanglaile,daobisiliaochangtongguojishu、guanlibazonghechengbenjiangxialai,ranglijiyangzhihu。ersiliaoxiaoliangshanglaile,qiyeyejiuyoulirunle。

泛亚电竞jiangximousiliaojituancaigouzhongxinbeifangmaoyibufuzerenszaidongbeiguanliyumicaigouyijing12nianle,jiayeanzailebayuquan。tabunengwanghuaideshi2016niannongminpaiduisantiansanyemaiyumidongdeyibabitiyibaleideqingjing。“yikuaiqian3jin。”tashuo,gongsiyuanlaiyidunsiliaolirunyouqianbabaiyuan,xianzaijibaishenzhijishiyuan,jiushizhengdianrengongfei。maiyuanliaoshiyouzhongliang、xiangyu、beidahuang、abcdsidaliangshangjishouxin,dabufenyongdeshiziyouzijin,danjinnianyeyongleyibufendisanfangtuopanzijin。“xiangfanyadianjingzheiyangdedaxingnongmuqiyexiangnadaonongfaxingdezijinhennande。qiyexiangzhuanqianyehennan。fanyadianjingdelinianjiushiboliduoxiao,genyangzhihubaotuanqunuanguodong。”xianzaitamenfanyadianjingdeyonghuyoushangwanjia。yangzhihuyecongsanhubianchengqianyutoudeyangzhichanghule。qiyejinnianyebujule100duogeyangzhuchang。yingduizhangjiadecuoshijiushinengtiqianmaijiutiqianmai,jinkoubianyijiumaijinkou。

泛亚电竞si、shichanghuashougou,rangchanyehuhuanpipeidediaokongjizhi

fanyadianjingguoyumichanyelianhenzhang,congnonghudaogangkou,gezhongliyizhutideliyisuqiugebuxiangtong。liyishousunde,xiwangjiaqiangdiaokong;dedaoliyide,xiwangshunqiziran。danyiluzoulai,fanyadianjingjingchang“beicaifang”。jiushizaiyeneiyouzheshijinian、jishinianjingyandecongyezhe,jinnianyeshiyipianmiwang。buzhidaoqidaiyijiude“shichanghuashougou”weihejibenmiandoushilingle?shichangshangzhengtisuqiujizhongzailianggefangmian,yishixinxiyaogongkai,ershijingzhengyaogongping。

xinxigongkaibujinshiyumixingyedewenti,ershizhenggeliangshilingyudewenti。hexinshizhengfuxinxiweisheifanyadianjingdewentimeiyoujiejue。2016nian3yue,fanyadianjingguoduiyumilinchushougouzhidujinxinggaige,jiangyumilinshishouchuzhengcediaozhengwei“shichanghuashougou”yu“butie”dexinmoshi,yumijiagecongcishichanghua,gongxuguanxichengweijuedingfanyadianjingguoyumijiagezoushidezhuyaoyinsu。jinnianjiageweishenmenengchaoqilai?hendadeyuanyinshi“gongxuguanxi”buqingchu。zhenggeshichangdouzai“cai”,zai“du”。chanyejibenmianxinxilimian,chuletianqi,youduoshaoxinxishigongkaide?shenzhizhongliangyewurenyuanxiangdaodongbeimoushengyouguanbumenyaoyigeliangshimianjishudoubukede。liangshipaimaifenpei,jinkoupeieguanli,yumichanliangmianji,shenjiagongxuqiubianhuadengdeng,xinxitixifanyadianjingyuxinxifanyadianjingshuiping,jidaiyu“shichanghuashougou”xiangpipei。fouze,jibenmianshaxinxidoubugongkai,nipingshenmeshuofanyadianjingxianzaidejiageshi“chaozhang”?nipingshenmeshuofanyadianjingbumailiangjiushi“xishou”?zhengshiyouyuquanweide、xitongde、youxiaodexinxiquewei,fabubudaowei,mouxiezimeitiliyongweixingongzhonghao、douyin、kuaishoudengshishangpingtaixiangshichangchuandaobushixinxi,sanbuxujialiangjia,gengyoushenzheduiguojiacengmianfabudexiaoxiduanzhangquyi,eyichaozuo,tianyoujiacu,mouqusili。xujiaxinximantianfeidexingyebidingbushijiankangfazhandexingye。

泛亚电竞jingzhenggongpingzeshiyigegengdadewenti。shiyigexuyaozaiguojiguoneishuangxunhuanxinfazhangejubeijingxiajiayishenshidewenti。zai“shichanghuashougou”yu“butie”deyumichanyexinhuanjingxia,yangqiguoqiruhefahuishichangdiaokongzuoyong,ruhecujin“liubaoliuwen”deshixian,yeshiyigequanxindemingti。yiqianlinchushiguojiadoudi,xianzaiyangqichongdanglelinchudetishen,danshimeiyouchengdanqilinchudoudideguojiashiming,meiyouchulihaogezhongliyiguanxi,meiyoukongzhihaoshichangyunxingmaidong。“shichanghuashougou”buyingshi“zibenhuachaozuo”。yangqidefazhanmianlinyuelaiyueyanjundeguojiguoneixingshi,danshichuangxinchuangyeyuyifayiguiyaoyoujijiehe,jiyaoshixianbaozhizengzhi,youyaochengdanshehuizeren。guojiayeyaojixuwanshanjiagezhengce,shenhuatizhijizhigaige,jiakuaixinxingshixiayumichanyedezhanlvebushuyuguihua,jianquanguojiayumianquanfazhanyujingjizhi。duiyuyumichanyeneiburujiujingchanyedaodizenmedingwei?yumiyuqitaxiangguanlianpinzhongruhebuju?doudaolezhanlvejueceqi。yumichanyeyingjihua、jieduanhuadediaokongmoshibushiyingguojiazhilitixihezhilinenglixiandaihuadeyaoqiule。guanlichuangxin,pozaimeijie。

zhengruqiyejiamensuoshuo,fanyadianjingbushiyaobaliangjiadaxiaqu,ershijishuifen,jixugao,jipaomo。fanyadianjingxiwangguojiadiaokongzhengceyaowendingyixie。tongguozhengcehejiagelianggeshouduan,zhubujianliyumichanyexinzhixu。zhengceyaowending,jiegouyaopingheng,kucunyaojunyun。haiyoujiushiyixieshichanghuagongju,biruqihuoshichang、qukuailianguanlidengdouyaoyouxiaodiliyongqilai。ruciyilai,jiagechaozuozheiyangdexianxiangjiubuhuimomingqimiaodifashengle。

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